Ukraine

“American and British military officials [helped] to hone the Ukrainians’ strategy. ‘We have algorithms and methodologies that are more sophisticated when it comes to things like mapping out logistics and calculating munitions rates,’ a senior official at the Defense Department said. ‘The idea was not to tell them what to do but, rather, to give them different runs to test their plans.'”

“In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow.”